A flurry of bets made prior to major announcements about the Iran war has ramped up speculation that individuals or groups with advance knowledge of U.S. military plans are cashing in on insider information.
And while prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi now say they are taking more proactive measures designed to prevent such illicit activity, experts say there have been few signs so far that Trump administration regulators are cracking down.
“You need the deterrent factor that exists on the government side,” said Chris Ehrman, an attorney who previously served as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s whistleblower office. Without it, he said, simply allowing the platforms to self-regulate often amounts to “whipping them with a wet noddle.”
So far, the suspect bets have been largely concentrated on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to wager on the likelihood of certain events taking place. But in at least
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