Though plenty of experts warned that Iran could and would likely close the strait if attacked, this crisis seems to have come as a surprise to those prosecuting the war.
President Donald Trump had tried to cajole allies into sending ships to help reopen the strait, something most of them declined to do. In an angry post on Truth Social and later speaking to reporters in the White House, Trump said the U.S. did not need NATO “but they should have been there.”
Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct lecturer at Sweden’s Lund University, agreed that the assassinations “will most likely not affect the operational side of the war.”
But the targeted killings will likely hamper the effectiveness of Iran’s internal operations, according to Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst.
“They can scramble command, slow decision-making, force successors into hiding, and demoralize both leadership and foot soldiers alike,” he said.
He described Larijani as
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