The markets have spoken, and Oscars voters got it 80 percent right. Or vice versa.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi users guessed the winners of 19 of 24 Academy Awards categories correctly, a 79.17 percent hit rate. Not bad.
Not to brag, but The Hollywood Reporter got 21 of 24 categories right, an 87.5 percent hit rate. Bet THR coming in spring 2027? (This isn’t investment advice.)
Polymarket and Kalshi got the same five categories wrong: live-action short film (Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers tied), animated short (The Girl Who Cried Pearls won), cinematography (Sinners won), documentary feature (Mr Nobody Against Putin won) and casting (One Battle After Another won). The faves in those categories were Two People Exchanging Saliva, Butterflies, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor and Sinners, respectively.
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